Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 2.758461 2.938160 3.135625 3.371245 3.648307 3.968601 4.374584
2025-03-02 2.508202 2.744696 3.021185 3.376638 3.835476 4.431291 5.312401
2025-03-09 2.346585 2.611398 2.933553 3.369352 3.972015 4.832569 6.304545
2025-03-16 2.208046 2.484259 2.829261 3.312705 4.015825 5.098374 7.210357
2025-03-23 2.142131 2.437927 2.817926 3.371557 4.225388 5.670700 9.088518
2025-03-30 2.037135 2.331743 2.715628 3.286355 4.194977 5.820101 10.196263
2025-04-06 1.942853 2.232912 2.614741 3.190854 4.130137 5.884136 11.177927
2025-04-13 1.871470 2.159917 2.543650 3.131691 4.115260 6.042926 12.764099
2025-04-20 1.842650 2.141574 2.546360 3.183385 4.298268 6.692060 18.445756
2025-04-27 1.833053 2.148030 2.583660 3.291946 4.605863 7.817778 45.020737
2025-05-04 1.795083 2.113004 2.557854 3.294567 4.708908 8.470574 837.239620
2025-05-11 1.760520 2.080889 2.534021 3.297562 4.813030 9.217418 NaN
2025-05-18 1.702763 2.015366 2.459098 3.211153 4.720931 9.251953 NaN
2025-05-25 1.672350 1.987545 2.439841 3.220217 4.843913 10.270102 NaN
2025-06-01 1.640628 1.956375 2.413498 3.213955 4.931129 11.281884 NaN
2025-06-08 1.600852 1.912054 2.364554 3.162728 4.901617 11.696856 NaN
2025-06-15 1.587258 1.904882 2.372654 3.215975 5.142399 14.246409 NaN
2025-06-22 1.546334 1.856411 2.313490 3.138857 5.031006 14.115568 NaN
2025-06-29 1.505316 1.806787 2.250931 3.052157 4.884976 13.600059 NaN
2025-07-06 1.473257 1.769538 2.206850 2.998309 4.821888 13.778849 NaN
2025-07-13 1.464183 1.765702 2.215589 3.045364 5.041612 17.249382 NaN
2025-07-20 1.465546 1.777198 2.249301 3.143924 5.440397 27.643922 NaN
2025-07-27 1.448133 1.760019 2.235383 3.146300 5.550851 36.647357 NaN